Fossil Fuels Pollution May Not Drop in 2024, New Study Shows
New projections dashing hopes that 2024 would be the year fossil fuels pollution levels would fall indicate new higher record levels would emerge before the year runs out.
Pierre Friedlingstein, a climate professor at the University of Exeter, who led a study, published penultimate Tuesday by the Global Carbon Project, a consortium of scientists suggests fossil fuel pollution is set to rise to 37.4 billion metric tons this year, an increase of 0.8% from 2023.
He warned that “time is running out”, and the “world leaders meeting at COP29 must bring about rapid and deep cuts to fossil fuel emissions.”
The study report also found that global emissions from coal, oil and gas are all projected to increase.
While fossil fuels make up the bulk of planet-heating pollution, the other main source is land-use change, including deforestation. Those emissions are also set to go up in 2024, according to the report, exacerbated by this year’s severe droughts and fires.
The International Energy Agency according to CNN‘s Laura Paddison, is predicting a major surplus of oil by the end of the decade as production continues rising and demand declines. The decline is in part due to the switch from gasoline to electric vehicles and renewable energy. The agency has reported that the world’s oil production is expected to increase to approximately 114 million barrels per day by 2030.
Total global climate pollution will reach 41.6 billion metric tons this year, up from 40.6 billion metric tons last year, according to the report. The increase may not seem huge, but it puts the world way off track for tackling the climate crisis.
A UN report published in October said global carbon emissions were “slowly plateauing and had raised the possibility they could fall this year”.
Fossil fuel pollution needs to roughly halve over this decade to keep global warming lower than 1.5 degrees Celsius, a threshold countries have pledged to try to stay below in the Paris climate agreement.
Climate change is already having catastrophic impacts. But scientists warn that at 1.5 degrees, it begins to exceed the ability of humans and the natural world to adapt — including potentially triggering devastating climate tipping points.
Humanity has already lived through 12-month periods above this critical climate limit but scientists are more concerned about longer timeframes. Tuesday’s study estimates that at current rates of emissions, there is a 50% chance the world will breach 1.5 degrees consistently in about six years.