By Katie Collins, CNET.com
We just lived through the hottest year since recordkeeping began more than a century ago, but before too long when we look back at 2023, it might not stand out as the pinnacle of extreme heat.
That’s because it’s unlikely to be the only hottest year that we experience. Our climate is changing, growing warmer due to the emissions from burning fossil fuels, and our weather is changing with it. It’s possible that this year may turn out to be hotter still.
In March, scientists from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said February 2024 was the hottest February according to records that stretch back to 1940. The news came on the heels of their report in early January that, as expected, 2023 was indeed the hottest year on record. Temperatures closed in on the critical 1.5-degree Celsius rise above preindustrial levels, after which we will see irreversible damage to the planet. These aren’t freak outliers: The extreme heat we’re experiencing is something we’ll need to be prepared to deal with on a much more regular basis, along with storms, floods and drought.
Later in March, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued its spring outlook, predicting that most of the continental US and Alaska will see above-average temperatures from April through June. The risk of flooding, it said, will ease during the three-month period because of “historically low winter snow cover” in large parts of the country.
A key trend highlighted by the US government’s Fifth National Climate Assessment, published in November, was that climate change is provoking extreme weather events across the country that are both more frequent and more severe. It pointed to an increase in heatwaves and wildfires in the West over the past few decades, the increased drought risk in the Southwest over the past century and more extreme rainfall east of the Rockies. Hurricanes have also been intensifying, as those who have found themselves in the path of a storm know all too well.
You’ll need to be prepared. Extreme weather is going to have a widespread impact on industry, society and individuals. Last year in the US there were 25 extreme weather events with losses amounting to over $1 billion that resulted in the deaths of 464 people. People lost their homes, saw personal property damaged or suffered mental and physical health issues.
Three months into 2024, we’re staring down the barrel of another potentially record-setting hot year. If there’s a silver lining, it’s that the US is now better prepared than ever and we know what steps you can take to better deal with these unwelcome events. When it comes to weather, forewarned is forearmed.
The US has been taking active steps. The Biden administration has provided funding to build resilient communities, and a new (as of September 2023) National Climate Resilience Framework, which should provide the US with a whole range of protections. These include conserving water resources, modernizing and strengthening the electric grid against weather and disasters and building infrastructure to protect communities and ecosystems from sea level rise, tidal flooding, hurricanes and storm surges.
At home and in your community, you can take steps, too, including preparing your home for wildfires and flooding and recognizing signs of heat-related health issues. This way, when wild weather comes calling, its impact on our homes, health and livelihoods is minimized.
Forecast 2024
Last year’s heat was no anomaly. It’s part of a long-term trend: The last 10 years have been the 10 warmest on record, according to NASA, with most of the Earth’s warming taking place over the last 40 years. Most forecasters are anticipating yet another year of extreme heat ahead.
“If we look at the forecast for the next three months in the long range, it’s suggesting that the trend that we’re seeing in baseline warming could continue, and so 2024 could rival 2023 for being the hottest year on record, which is very scary,” says Chloe Brimicombe, a heatwave researcher at the University of Graz.
Some of the extreme weather we experienced in the latter half of last year and will continue to experience in the first half of this year is a result of El Niño, a cyclical climate event that sees unusually warm ocean waters that has a knock-on effect of warmer temperatures and increased rainfall across the southern part of the US. For instance, temperatures in Death Valley, California, peaked at 128 degrees Fahrenheit in July, while forecasters predicted warmer temperatures in northern parts of the US stretching into February and a colder, wetter winter for Southern states.
People wading through NYC flood water, which reaches above their knees
Increased rainfall can lead to floods, like those that hit New York City in September 2023. The Washington Post via Getty Images
While meteorologists are able to make long-term predictions about El Niño, other climate-related predictions are trickier. “All things told, we’re going to see an increased prevalence of heat events across the globe, but we can’t tell right now exactly where that will be,” says Andy Hoell, a climate scientist at NOAA.
What we do know, he adds, is that the climate crisis can compound events such as extreme heat or extreme rainfall to make them more likely or more severe.
In the past, it wasn’t always easy to draw direct links between extreme weather events and climate change. But huge improvements in attribution science (the ability to specifically identify emissions as the cause for unusually dramatic weather) in recent years have changed the game. The World Weather Attribution program, based at Imperial College London, has now completed nine studies on droughts, heatwaves, wildfires and heavy rainfall in North America. “Every study found that climate change made the event more intense and more likely,” says Ben Clarke, a researcher at WWA.
The speed at which climate scientists are able to identify human-caused climate change as the culprit for extreme weather has also dramatically improved. Last year alone, Climate Central was able to attribute record-breaking spring heat in the western US, and ongoing extreme heat stretching through the summer in Texas and Florida, to climate change as it was happening. “It’s much more impactful as far as our understanding of what climate change really is if we can make that connection in real time,” says Andrew Pershing, vice president of science at Climate Central, a climate science analysis non-profit.
Thanks to attribution science, we can confidently point to a heatwave we’ve experienced and say whether climate change played a role in making it happen. But it also helps us to recognize that extreme weather events we’re experiencing are part of a pattern – one that can’t be broken without tackling the root causes of the climate crisis. “Until the world moves away from fossil fuels and reduces emissions to net zero,” says Clarke, “extreme weather events in North America will continue to become more intense, more dangerous and more deadly.”
Even if you live in a region that hasn’t yet directly been impacted by a climate-linked weather event, you’re not off the hook.
“As the climate continues to warm, most areas will be at an increased risk of some types of climate-linked extreme weather,” says Russell Vose, chief of the Monitoring and Assessment Branch at NOAA’ National Centers for Environmental Information and one of the NCA’s authors. “Perhaps the best example is extreme heat – it can occur anywhere.”
He points to the scorching heat dome that descended on the Pacific Northwest in June and July 2021, which was unprecedented in the historical record.